Looking Back On My 2016 Predictions
1.Software as a whole will drive the technology conversation - Ok, so this was a bit of a softball, but I'm going to claim victory anyway. The buzz behind SDN and NFV have continued to rise, and there's virtually no carrier out there that isn't putting them to work or to the test. Verdict: yes!
2.Fiber consolidation in the US will slow further - Until the end of October, I was ready to claim victory on this one. Then CenturyLink bought Level 3, and there followed an almost daily drumbeat of new network M&A moves. Verdict: Tackled at the 10 yard line.
3.Fiber consolidation in Europe will claim a consolidator. - Does CenturyLink/Level 3 count? Because that's the only way I win this one. I was really thinking of someone like Zayo or Level 3 buying Interoute or Colt or euNetworks or... Verdict: Just call me Stretch...
4.Sponsored data will come under increasing regulatory/political attack - This just didn't happen at all. Net neutrality didn't play in the election at all, and nobody seriously bothered to challenge sponsored data offerings. In fact, with the new Trump administration coming in, the tide has pretty much shifted the other way. Verdict: Completely off target.
5.The courts will let the FCC's Title II-based net neutrality stand for now - But this one seems to have been correct. In fact I suggested that the industry would need a shift in the balance of power at the FCC to change this, and indeed this is precisely what may be happening for next year. Verdict: On target.
6.One of the three US incumbents will sell or spin off its datacenter/cloud business - Actually, two of them did just that in the fourth quarter. Verizon sold 24 data centers to Equinix, and CenturyLink sold its data centers to private equity. Verdict: On target.
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By Rob Powell
Contact me at tduggan(@)Cogentco.com at Cogent for more Info or to Network. Cogent delivers customers with Highly Reliable, Secure and Scalable IP Networks. With 800 POP Data Center locations, over 200 markets throughout 41 countries in North America, Europe and Asia, with over 60,000 route miles of long-haul fiber.
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